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WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections Detroit Tigers AnalysisDetroit Tigers Prospect NotebookDetroit Tigers Game ThreadsDetroit Tigers NewsDetroit Tigers Podcasts#TigerBitesWatch Daz Cameron make an awesome diving catch in center fieldNew Tug McGraw Jersey ,13commentsCameron looks to be in midseason form!ESTShareTweetShareShareWatch Daz Cameron make an awesome diving catch in center fieldOne player Daz Cameron has drawn comparisons to in his short time with the Detroit Tigers organization is the last great center fielder to man the position in Motown: Austin Jackson. Though Jackson was an excellent defender, one of the knocks on him during his Tigers heyday was that he did not dive after balls in the gap.I’m not saying this comparison is a complete failure, but Daz Cameron doesn’t subscribe to the same “no diving” philosophy.Cameron’s efforts helped preserve a 1-1 tie at the time, but the Philadelphia Phillies scored a pair of runs in the seventh to win 3-1 on Thursday. Let’s play what if. A look back at Astros trades as the team transitioned from rebuilding to contention. Part I, 2014-2015."WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections Houston Astros NewsGame ThreadsHouston Astros Minor LeaguesAstros Game DayPodcastsReviewing Astros Trades 2014-2018: Part INew,29commentsLet’s play what if. A look back at Astros trades as the team transitioned from rebuilding to contention. Part I, 2014-2015.Fangraphs of -1.6. His fWAR with the Astros was .6 and his bWAR was .5. Conger’s 2015 season with the Astros was his first and only.Strangely, the Angels’ get from the trade, Tropeano and Perez, each had career years in 2015, a year in which the Astros beat the Angels to the Wild Card game by one game. The catcher, Perez, that the Angels got from the Astros had, on paper, a better season than Conger, getting a 1.1 bWAR and 1.0 fWAR, much of this on the strength of a 7.3 defensive rating per Fangraphs.Tropeano had a 1.1 fWAR and .2 bWAR rating in 2015. Depending on which numbers you use, Tropeano and Perez together produced, in 2015 alone, almost a win to two wins more than Conger.According to bWAR, Tropeano has gone on to add 1.3 more wins since 2015, but according to fWAR no wins at all. He is projected for .3 fWAR in 2019.Perez has fallen off a cliff, producing -0.4 fWAR and -0.6 bWAR since 2015.Grade: CSince the Astros ended up beating the Angels in the Wild Card race, and neither prospect surrendered by the Astros looks like an emerging force Drew Hutchison Jersey , this is a pretty inconsequential trade. Another factor in this trade is that Conger kept Evan Gattis from catching, and as it turns out, Gattis never had a defensive rating at catcher as low as Conger’s in 2015. I would give the trade a lower grade except for these clutch moments by Conger, without which, who knows, the Astros don’t make the playoffs in 2015.Here’s a go ahead Conger grand slammer.And where would the 2015 Astros have been without Congerbot.January 14, 2015Catcher Andrew Thurman, pitcher Mike Foltynewicz, and third baseman Rio Ruiz were traded to the Braves for catcher/DH Evan Gattis andRP James Hoyt.Breakdown: This turned out to be the Foltynewicz for Gattis trade and so far its a pretty even deal. Folty has produced 5.3 bWAR and 6.9 fWAR for the Braves.Gattis has produced 5.4 bWAR but only 4 fWAR for the Astros. But from here on out this trade looks like the gift that keeps on giving for the Braves, as Foltynewicz broke out in 2018, making the All Star game and earning 3.9 fWAR for his up and coming Braves. He is projected at 2.7 WAR for 2019 and does not become a free agent until 2022. Grade: C-I know I said wins now are worth more than wins later, but, I hate to say this, I love Evan Gattis, he really didn’t produce that many wins, except in 2016, the one year in his Astros career the team didn’t make the playoffs. fWAR by year: 2015, 0.3; 2016, 2.6; 2017, 1.0; 2018, 0.0.He never learned how to hit as a DH at very close to league average for that position, and although he hit much better as a catcher, he was too big a defensive liability there to hold down that position, or at least the Astros thought so.On the other hand it is hard to see how Foltynewicz would have been able to help the Astros. With its stacked rotation Larry Bowa Jersey , he may never have even had a chance to crack the starting five in 2018, his breakout year with the Braves. So Gattis helped the Astros a little during their championship runs, maybe more than Foltynewicz would have, and now Foltynewicz is there for the Braves now that they are competitive.But boy, how the Astros would like to have Folty going forward.January 19, 2015Center fielder Dexter Fowler to Cubs forpitcher Dan Straily andthird baseman Luis Valbuena.Breakdown:This one is more complicated than it looks at first glance because it involves center field, a matter of great controversy looking forward, as it turned out. Fowler only had one year left on his contract with the Astros, and in 2015 he contributed 2.4 bWAR and 3.0 fWAR to the Cubs. In 2016 he resigned with the Cubs for one year, $8,000,000, and made his only All Star appearance, adding 4.1 bWAR to the championship Cubbies. More on why that matters later.This trade was a classic trading for need, as the only other potential MLB ready third base prospect in the system at the time was maybe the erratic Jonathon Villar. Valbuena contributed bWAR 2.3, fWAR 1.5 to the 2015 playoff bound Astros, and another bWAR 2.6 and fWAR 2.2 in 2016. Using bWAR, Valbuena in two years provided 2.5 more wins than Fowler. A decent return for one year of Dexter Fowler, especially since Fowler’s replacement in center field in 2015, Jake Marisnick, contributed a nearly identical 2.3 bWAR to Fowler’s, although less by Fangraph calculations; 1.8 fWAR to 3.0.But this trade also involved a huge missed opportunity; Dan Straily. He was barely used in 2015, then traded for next to nothing in 2016. More on that later.He has been a serviceable BOR starting pitcher since leaving the Astros and would have been under team control until 2022.Another hypothetical to consider. What if the Astros kept Fowler and re-signed him in 2016 to the deal that the Cubs gave him; one year $8 million, one million less than 2016’s center fielder Jim Bunning Jersey , Carlos Gomez. With Fowler’s 4.1 bWAR added to the team and taking away Carlos Gomez’ -0.7, you have about five wins added to the team. That would have put the Astros in a tie for the Wild Card that year.With Alex Bregman, Tyler White and others in the minors, could they have replaced Valbuena’s production and eked into the playoffs? Who knows? But if keeping Fowler meant not making the horrible Gomez trade that would have been reward enough. Grade: BValbuena provided 2.5 more wins during the length of his contract than Fowler would have if he had stayed. He provided left handed power, and filled an urgent need at third base with first base flexibility. If Dan Straily had been utilized by the Astros this trade becomes an A. But if the hypothetical mentioned above occurred, that is Fowler kept and re-signed in 2016, and no subsequent Gomez trade, then I would have kept Fowler through 2016, hands down.As you all know, Luis Valbuena was killed recently inhis native Venezuela. The following video is a tribute.July 23, 2015Pitcher Daniel Mengden and catcher Jacob Nottingham were traded to the Oakland A’s for pitcher Scott Kazmir.Breakdown:In 2015 the Astros unexpectedly found themselves in the hunt for a playoff spot and made two major trade deadline moves to solidify the team.Both were mistakes.Let’s start with the Kazmir trade. We’ll cover the Gomez trade in part II.Kazmir was having the second of two great comeback seasons with Oakland, having been an All Star in 2014, and before the trade sporting a 2.38 ERA in 109 innings in 2015. Unfortunately, as soon as he came to Houston he got bad, his ERA increasing almost two runs to 4.17, his FIP increasing two runs to 5.19, WHIP up, K/9 down, general decay across the board. He won two games and lost six. His bWAR was -0.1 in 73 innings. The Astros lost the one ALDS game he pitched in which Kazmir surrendered 3 runs in 5.1 innings. Seems the Astros got no return on Kazmir.What did the Astros give up?First off, a guy with a great baseball mustache.Who does he think he is, Rollie Fingers?After baseball Daniel Mengden should headline a barbershop quartet.Since his debut with the A’s in 2016 Mengden has pitched 230 innings with a 4.69 FIP and 4.70 xFIP, slightly higher than league average. His fWAR is 1.8 and his bWAR is 1.7. At age 25 one can presume he still has room to improve and he is under team control until 2024.If he were an Astro he would probably have way fewer innings than he has had in Oakland but in 2018 he gave the Astros’ main nemesis 115 innings, 7 wins and 6 losses,and a 4.05 ERA.When Jacob Nottingham was traded he was considered the Astros’ top catching prospect even though he was only in A+ Lancaster. In 2016 Nottingham was rated the #66 prospect in baseball and he got his first taste of the big leagues this year with Milwaukee Jim Thome Jersey , hitting .200 in 20 AB’s.At age 23 he still seems on track for a successful major league career.Here is how his age 23 AAA season compares to the Astros’ current top catching prospect, Garrett Stubbs, age 25.Nottingham: .281/.347/.528 He had 10 home runs and an .875 OPS in 196 PA’s .Stubbs: .310/.382/.455 He had 4 home runs andan .836 OPS in 340 PA’s.Steamer only projects 30 PA’s for Nottingham in 2019 but rates him a plus defender. Coincidentally Steamer also projects 30 PA’s for Stubbs and gives him an identical +0.6 defensive rating. Baseball Reference projects Nottingham with 212major league PA’s and a .737 OPS for 2019.Grade: D-Wins now are worth more than wins later but Kazmir was a below replacement pitcher for the Astros in 2015.Mengden, projected for 0.6 WAR for 2019,is already a fringe BOR starter, while Nottingham is on track to be a successful major league catcher, a position of need for the Astros. All loss, no gain with this one.Why not an F grade? The Astros got into the playoffs ahead of the Angels by one game in 2015.It is possible that even though Kazmir was a below replacement pitcher, he was better than any potential Astros replacement that year. In particular, in his second start with the Astros, July 30, 2015, he pitched 7.2 innings, allowing no runs and only 3 hits. Although he was not the pitcher of record, the Astros went on to beat the Angels that day, 3-0.What if the Kazmir replacement gave up four runs that day, easy to do with just a bad pitch or two to Mike Trout?It was pretty much all downhill from there for Kazmir, but without that game, no playoffs, and no playoff experience for the young Astros prior to their 2017 run. Mike Trout and Albert Pujols were 0-7 for the game. Thanks Scott.Before you comment allow me to reiterate one of my caveats. I am not judging Jeff Luhnow for the lack of wild success of these trades.How could he have known that Scott Kazmir was actually a Billy Beane mole sent to sabotage the Astros?Or that Hank Conger would collapse defensively in 2015 and actually produce fewer WAR than the unheralded rookie catcher he gave away? With any trade you play the odds.But the dice don’t always roll your way.In Part II we will start with the infamous Carlos Gomez trade.Coming soon!